¿SORPRENDENTE GIRO EN AFGANISTÁN?

Top of the Agenda: U.S. Facilitates Taliban Talks U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan facilitated the passage of senior Taliban leaders to Kabul for talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai's GIgovernment, signaling a shift (WSJ) by the United States to more actively support Afghan reconciliation efforts. Previously, the United States worried Karzai's efforts to broker peace talks with the Taliban were premature. But even partial reconciliation may be a quicker route to ending the troubled and unpopular military campaign in Afghanistan, which U.S. President Barack Obama pledged to wrap up in July 2011. Some U.S. and NATO officials say the United States' encouragement may reflectgrowing pessimism (NYT) about the increase of U.S. forces producing decisive gains against the Taliban insurgency. For Karzai, peace talks could help cement his position (al-Jazeera) as head of the government, especially after U.S. forces leave. Some Taliban members likely are using the peace talks as a stalling tactic, hoping to undermine support for the NATO military campaign. The Taliban has publicly denied its leaders are in talks. But Afghan and Arab sources dismiss those claims as posturing(WashPost), and say that leading segments of the insurgency finally appear to be seriously considering a settlement. U.S. and coalition demands for a settlement align with those of Karzai: The Taliban must reject al-Qaeda, lay down its arms, declare allegiance to the Afghan constitution, and respect human rights. The Taliban says publicly that there can be no peace until foreign military forces leave Afghanistan. While some have praised negotiation efforts, former Northern Alliance military and political leaders are increasingly uneasy about the possibility of the Taliban winning a role in the government. Analysis: On Slate.com, Fred Kaplan says despite Obama's repeated pledge that the July 2011 deadline will only be the beginning of a U.S. troop withdrawal, some senior White House advisers "are seekingany excuse for an exit." On a New Republic blog, Michael Cohen says there is a pervasive sense among international journalists, NGO officials, analysts, and political leaders "of fatalism about [Afghanistan's] future and the U.S. war effort." Only the U.S. military is "ever-optimistic." Crucial to the success of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan is dealing with the country's "predatory misgovernance," says CFR's Stephen Biddle. Targeting U.S. contracting practices is a good place to start, he says. Background: This Backgrounder examines the capabilities of Afghanistan's national security forces.